Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox

Providing foresight on the future development of sustainable food and nutrition security (SFNS) in the EU is one of SUSFANS core targets. This concept encompasses sustainable food systems and sustainable and balanced diets. In their new deliverable, the researchers presented a first step in the quantitative part of the foresight. Its main objective is to quantify the contextual variables to be used as input by models in  the SUSFANS Toolbox.  

Food and nutrition security: Early warning systems for commodity markets

The state of food security and the stability of the food system can be summarized and measured by food price pressure as well as food price volatility. In this way changes in food prices and their volatility can be used as early warning indicators. SUSFANS researchers of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) illustrate in a new report the capacity of an econometric system to provide such services.

Project Advisory Board supported SUSFANS at Paris meeting

The new SUSFANS Project Advisory Board fruitfully engaged with the research team during the project meeting in Paris in November. The Project Advisory Board is challenging the SUSFANS team and supports the scientific dialogue via participation in project workshops and meetings like the annual consortium meeting. It reviews key project deliverables and was created to strengthen the impact of the project in two ways

Livestock and fish: Around 40 stakeholders participated in SUSFANS 3rd SCG Workshop

Vienna - Around 40 persons participated in the the 3rd Workshop of the SUSFANS project at September 28, 2017. In the focus of the meeting, which took place in Vienna, Austria, was the role of livestock and fish for a sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe.

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Latest Publications

Deliverable 10.1: Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox

This deliverable quantifies the most relevant scenario narratives spanning across the range of future challenges for the EU sustainable FNS for use in the SUSFANS toolbox.

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Deliverable 6.2: A systematic review of existing EU-wide scenarios related to the EU sustainable food and nutrition security, identification of most salient features, and resulting synthesis scenarios for exploring sustainable diets

Scenarios as a tool to reflect on future pathways to sustainable food and nutrition security. Building on existing foresight and scenario exercises and identifying their most salient features in order to be combined in SUSFANS scenarios able to assess the EU policy goals for food systems.

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Deliverable 8.4: Early warning systems for commodity markets

An agricultural commodity price and price volatility forecasting modelling system has been developed and applied for four agricultural commodities to perform forecasts on a horizon spanning from three months to one year. The forecasting system can be used as an early warning system based on seasonal and decadal simulated weather and climate forecasts in combination with financial and macro-economic projections.

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Deliverable 4.5: The drivers of crop production at regional level in the EU: an econometric analysis

Crop production is the most crucial primary agricultural production activity for both food and nutrition security. Around 70% of the calories per capita and day come from plant-based products. The report provides a qualitative assessment of drivers of crop production and a quantitative analysis of crop yields in the EU. Crop yield trends are largely positive throughout the EU. Average efficiencies in yield exploitation are between 70 and 80% depending on the crop. Climate has mixed effects on crop yields and farm size, fertilizer and plant protection all clearly positively affect crop yields.

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Deliverable 7.1: The initial model to design SHARP diets, based on nutritional adequacy and preliminary sustainability metrics

This paper collates food and nutrient intake data from Denmark, Czech Republic, Italy and France. Nutritional adequacy of the diets will be assessed using a protocol developed in WP2. This is the basis for the initial model to design SHARP diets, based on nutritional adequacy and preliminary sustainability metrics.

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Deliverable 5.1: Baseline sustainability assessment of the current state of livestock/fish and fruit/vegetables supply chains

To assess different possible future directions for the EU food system, potential pathways based on a set of innovations need to be identified. The aim of WP5 is to define different pathways towards more sustainable and healthy diets within the EU, without negative implications in the rest of world. This first report of WP 5 makes the case for the two selected case studies based on the current situation, provides as first set of innovation pathways and explores the use of metrics in a spider diagram to assess sustainable FNS. The innovations focus on two cases, ‘livestock and fish case’ and ‘the fruit and vegetable case’. For both supply chains there are concerns regarding the current European diet (too high consumption of livestock and too limited consumption fruit, vegetables and seafood), whereas for livestock and fish production there are also pressing environmental concerns (land use, GHG emissions, fish stock depletion).

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A modelling strategy for quantifying the sustainability of food and nutrition security in the EU

This deliverable outlines a modelling strategy for quantifying metrics and methods for quantifying the sustainability of EU FNS. SUSFANS models are assessed in terms of data needs, their limitations and the questions they can address related to sustainable FNS in the short term and the long term. This assessment sets the scene for operationalization of the SUSFANS Toolbox.

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Deliverable 8.1: Fundamentals, Speculation or Macroeconomic Conditions? On the Determinants of Commodity Price Dynamics, with an Application to Arabica Coffee

We analyse the role played by market fundamentals, speculation and macroeconomic conditions as empirical determinants of commodity price changes. We combine model averaging techniques to explain historical patterns with an in-depth analysis of out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices using fundamentals as well as macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that variables related to global macroeconomic and financial developments contain valuable information to explain the historical pattern of coffee price developments, as well as to improve out-of-sample predictions of coffee prices

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Latest Blog Posts


2017 has been an important and proaductive year for SUSFANS. Not only did we complete a long trajectory of developing metrics for sustainable food and nutrition security, we also assessed consumer diets in selected European countries against a common food-based dietary guideline.

Dec, 18 2017   0 Comments   Thom Achterbosch  

During the last year stakeholder continued to interact with the project team and gave motivating feedback for the future. Voices out of the private sector named the work done so fare within SUSFANS ‘impressive’ - but expectations remain high.

Dec, 18 2017   0 Comments   Sebastian Eckert  

How can we improve the food system in the EU, especially from the perspective of social, environmental and economic sustainability? How can we balance and encompass views on how to strengthen food and nutrition security in the EU?

These are the core questions of the SUSFANS project. SUSFANS’ overall goal is to come to a better food and nutrition system for human health, the environment and corporate enterprises in Europe.

Sep, 19 2016   0 Comments   Sebastian Eckert